复杂工程视点 2019-05-24 12:05:19

《牛津重大工程管理指南》第一章Introduction:The Iron Law of Megaproject Management发布,由该书主编,牛津大学教授BentFlyvbjerg编写,该章首先介绍了为什么出版《The Oxford Handbook ofMegaproject Management》,作者认为重大工程管理还是一个年轻的学术领域,研究还比较碎片化,需要经典文本来支撑这一理论的建立和发展,而指南就起到这一作用。其次界定了什么是重大工程,以及全球重大工程的业务规模有多大。再次重点介绍了重大工程兴起的技术至上、政治至上、经济至上和美学至上的四个驱动力,以及重大工程管理必须知道的十个事情:

  1. Megaprojectsare inherently risky due to long planning horizons and complex interfaces(由于长期规划视角和复杂的界面,重大工程本质上具有风险)

  2. Oftenprojects are led by planners and managers without deep domain experiencewhokeep changing throughout the long project cycles that apply tomegaprojects,leaving leadership weak.(由于重大工程的规划和管理者通常不具备全过程多变的深厚专业经验,导致项目领导力薄弱)

  3. Decisionmaking, planning, and management are typically multi-actor processesinvolvingmultiple stakeholders, public and private, with conflicting interests.(决策制定、规划和管理是典型的多行为主体交互过程,涉及多种利益相关者、公私主体,且利益相互冲突)

  4. Technologyand designs are often non-standard, leading to "uniquenessbias" amongstplanners and managers, who tend to see their projects assingular, which impedeslearning from other projects.(技术和设计通常非标准化,导致规划和管理者的“独特性偏见”,他们总认为自己的项目独一无二,从而排斥向其他项目学习)

  5. Frequentlythere is overcommitment to a certain project concept at an earlystage,resulting in “lock-in” or “capture,” leaving alternatives analysis weakorabsent, and leading to escalated commitment in later stages."Failfast" does not apply; "fail slow" does.(在项目早期概念阶段经常性过度承诺,导致“套牢”或“俘获”,缺乏替代方案分析,致使后期承诺升级,不是“快速结束”而是“慢慢地失败”)

  6. 6.Dueto the large sums of money involved, principal-agent problems andrent-seekingbehavior are widespread, as is optimism bias.(由于涉及大量资金,委托代理问题和寻租行为普遍,出现乐观主义陷阱)

  7. Theproject scope or ambition level will typically change significantly overtime.(随着时间变化,项目的范围或规模水平通常会显著变化)

  8. Deliveryis a high-risk, stochastic activity, with overexposure to so-called"blackswans," i.e.,extreme events with massively negative outcomes.Managers tendto ignore this, treating projects as if they exist largely in adeterministicNewtonian world of cause, effect, and control.(由于 “黑天鹅”现象的显著作用,交付是高风险的随机活动。管理者倾向于忽视这些,将项目视为确定性的因果关系和可控制世界)注:发现黑天鹅之前,欧洲人认为天鹅都是白的,他们曾用“黑天鹅”指不可能存在的事物,但这个信念随着第一只黑天鹅的出现而崩溃。它寓意着不可预测的重大稀有事件,在意料之外改变一切。

  9. Statisticalevidence shows that such complexity and unplanned events are oftenunaccountedfor, leaving budget and time contingencies for projects inadequate.(统计资料显示,如此复杂性和未预料事件经常未予以考虑,致使不可预见的预算和时间不足)

  10. Asa consequence, misinformation about costs, schedules, benefits, and risks isthenorm throughout project development and decision-making. The result iscostoverruns, delays, and benefit shortfalls that undermine projectviabilityduring project delivery and operations.(因此,成本、进度、效益和风险方面的错误信息成为项目开发和决策制定过程中的普遍现象,其结果是项目交付和运营过程中的成本超支,延期和收益不足极大损害了项目的可行性)

本部分还介绍了重大工程管理铁律,那就是Overbudget, over time, under benefits,

overandover again(超投资、超进度、效益低下,一次一次的超!),以及重大工程悖论,那就是重大工程绩效很糟糕,但是却越来越多,越来越大,"easyto begin anddifficult and expensive to stop”(容易开始,但停止难,代价高)。该章节最后介绍了全书的目的及结构,即重大工程的挑战、原因和对策。




SuezCanal, Egypt 1,900

ScottishParliament Building, Scotland 1,600

SydneyOpera House, Australia 1,400

MontrealSummer Olympics, Canada 1,300

Concordesupersonic aeroplane, UK, France 1,100

Troyand Greenfield railroad, USA 900

ExcaliburSmart Projectile, USA, Sweden 650

CanadianFirearms Registry, Canada 590

LakePlacid Winter Olympics, USA 560

Medicaretransaction system, USA 560

NationalHealth Service IT system, UK 550

Bankof Norway headquarters, Norway 440

Furkabase tunnel, Switzerland 300

VerrazanoNarrow bridge, USA 280

Boston'sBig Dig artery/tunnel project, USA 220

Denverinternational airport, USA 200

Panamacanal, Panama 200

MinneapolisHiawatha light rail line, USA 190

Humberbridge, UK 180

DublinPort tunnel, Ireland 160

Montrealmetro Laval extension, Canada 160

Copenhagenmetro, Denmark 150

Boston-NewYork-Washington railway, USA 130

GreatBelt rail tunnel, Denmark 120

LondonLimehouse road tunnel, UK 110

Brooklynbridge, USA 100

ShinkansenJoetsu high-speed rail line, Japan 100

Channeltunnel, UK, France 80

Karlsruhe-Brettenlight rail, Germany 80

LondonJubilee Line extension, UK 80

Bangkokmetro, Thailand 70

MexicoCity metroline, Mexico 60

High-speedRail Line South, The Netherlands 60

GreatBelt east bridge, Denmark 50